What will TV be like in 2020?

The rapid changes in consumers’ viewing habits brought about over the last decade by such services as Sky+ and Freeview show what can change in a short period in the TV domain. VOD and IPTV services through a set-top box have also emerged over the last decade but have been slower to make real changes to viewing habits. However, their impact is set to accelerate over the next decade. User interest in VOD is definitely present (as high usage of BBC iPlayer suggests) but ‘discovering’ content in broad VOD libraries, particularly on a TV screen, (or even thinking to consider VOD content instead of on broadcast channels) requires a substantial change in user behaviour. This change will only be brought about by UIs that really take account of user needs and so facilitate this change.

Developments in VOD/IPTV services are accelerating (e.g. through Project Canvas) and set-top box based services will soon emerge that provide access to a wider range of content, more similar to the scope available on the web. In my opinion, how successful these services are will depend greatly on how much consideration developers give to understanding the user benefits of broadcast TV (as well as of the newer services) to ensure services develop that are considered an improvement by viewers. If these factors are carefully considered, I believe VOD/IPTV services could have an even more dramatic effect on TV viewing habits over the next 10 years than PVR services have had in the last 10 years. 

Whether the next decade will see the end of broadcast TV as some predict, I doubt, however I definitely expect dramatic changes. Viewing of broadcast TV will inevitably decrease as usage of VOD/IPTV grows since many consumers only have so many hours in a week to watch TV. In addition, broadcast TV business models that rely on advertising revenues are threatened by the increasing number of channels, increase in PVR advert skipping and advertising budgets being diverted online. This provides the necessary business incentive for a radical change in TV services. 

By 2020 I expect to be watching TV via a range of mobile devices, computers, set-top boxes and traditional TV sets. On my TV sets I expect a flexible experience integrating broadcast, VOD, internet applications and games with seamless transfer of content between my ‘TV-enabled’ devices, supported by remote controls optimised for these new applications.  I also expect easy access on my TV sets to photos, music and other personal media content . I hope the service will provide a fast, intuitive, personalised approach to discovering content, supporting the social functions of TV (for family/household viewing and ‘water-cooler’ discussions) and including an element of serendipity in finding VOD content in a similar way to channel ‘flicking’. In this way I hope to stumble across programmes I enjoy with minimum cognitive effort. 

And finally, I want all this to have evolved without any user group being excluded. To achieve this, flexible services are needed that support the existing habits of the older, tech-nervous user, and those with disabilities, just as much as the young, tech-savvy.

I look forward to being a part of the evolution…

Comments

[Ade Molajo]

The natural evolution of television "should" follow the path of most media to a free model less dependent on our willingness to pay e.g. Communication (BT to Skype, gmail, facebook), Music (peer to peer) and Newspapers (inspiring Murdoch crusade against Google).

I think the switch in TV is being driven my the maturing generation that is so used to downloading anything and everything, for nothing, when they want it. The big media companies are playing catchup (Ninjavideo.net vs itv.com/player).

Premium players like Murdoch's Sky TV try to cling on to their cash cow subscription models, but lets be honest PVR (SKY+ etc.) is just a better VHS not a revolution.

TV is going to look very different as Napster/Kazaa generation become adults and continue their everything should be free behaviour.

[Jamie]

Television and internet will be one by the year 2020. Cable television itself will be a dying breed.